BCMPB Provincial Scale Mountian Pine Beetle Projection
SELES was used to implement a provincial scale mountain pine beetle model (BCMPB). Marvin Eng(1) Andrew Fall(2) Josie Hughes(3) Terry Shore(4) Bill Riel(4) Peter Hall(5) Adrian Walton(1)
(1) Research Branch, BC Forest Service (2) Gowlland Technologies Ltd. (3) Landscape Ecology Lab, University of Toronto (4) Pacific Forestry Centre, Canadian Forest Service (5) Forest Practices Branch, BC Forest Service
Objective
To provide a spatially and temporally explicit projection of the current MPB outbreak at a provincial scale. The purpose of providing the projection was to give senior managers and scientists information, at a provincial scale, which could be used in their decision-making processes.
Models Built
- Mountain pine beetle projection model - discrete state transition model parameterized with 1999-2005 survey data.
- Provincial-scale forest management model
Comments
This is interesting example because Andrew built the forest management sub-model, Josie built the MPB projection sub-model, and Marvin asked the good questions. We hadn't actually tried co-writing models that way before. A practical education in modularity and collaboration. Many eyes are better than few for finding mistakes.